Crypto Is Easy Until It Isn’t
Apply the super famous phrase 'doing nothing might be the smartest trade' already, ffs
In the current cycle, more people than ever are making money in crypto. At the same time, more people than ever are losing it. That is not a contradiction. It is just the nature of markets, especially one as volatile and fast-moving as crypto. As I have said many times, in crypto it is easier to make money than to preserve it. That is the real challenge. Anyone can make a good trade once. The real difference is whether you can hold on to those gains across times of chaos, drawdowns, euphoria and doubt.
Most people think in the short term, even when they claim to be long-term investors. During the 2024 range in Bitcoin, when it traded between $54,000 and $72,000 from March to October, many thought they had missed the train. They looked at others who bought at $20,000 or $30,000 and convinced themselves it was too late. That mindset never changes. No matter how wide the range or how much opportunity exists, the market always makes you feel like you are arriving too late. But the truth is that crypto is still early by its very nature. The whole ecosystem continues to expand. There are more users, more narratives, more liquidity and more capital every cycle. Whether that growth is sustainable or not is irrelevant. The fact is, it keeps happening. And when you are inside something that keeps growing, being “late” is often just an illusion.
If you had bought Bitcoin at the previous top around $65,000 in 2021, you would have experienced a brutal drawdown to the $16,000–$20,000 range in late 2022. That is a correction of over 70%. Many gave up. But if you simply held, by 2025 you would be in profit again. Even after a fresh 25% correction that's happening right now, you would still be up. That tells us something important. Timing the market is a nice idea, but surviving the market is what really matters. Most of the people who were considered “late” at the time ended up in profit, even doing better than people who are in the space 24/7. This is very common with altcoins, where in a much more short-term mindset (weeks), we believe we're buying the tokens from early investors and don’t enter or take profits when they go up a little, without realizing that, in many of them, we’re actually still early given the potential of the project.
The real fact is that it’s not the holder who loses money, it’s the one who uses leverage or sells too early. I’m not talking about those times when you invest in garbage projects, in those cases (which are the most tokens rn) , you need to be the first to realize it and capitulate, or you’ll suffer 99% drawdowns on the same token over and over again. I’m talking about projects like Bitcoin, or others you believe are equally valid for the long run.
Pro-Tip: don't lose and be patient
The highlight is: the real danger is not buying late. The real danger is having to start over.
If you make good decisions early in the cycle but lose everything trying to squeeze out a bit more, then you weren’t early, you were just lucky once. That’s not how wealth is built. The goal isn’t to hit the perfect top or bottom, it’s to stay solvent and present for the next opportunity.
Think about what you are buying and at what valuation. This matters more than anything else. Bitcoin has consistently recovered and grown because of its nature. It is the most decentralized, resilient and institutionally adopted asset in the space. It has no central foundation. No one can break it. Michael Saylor can dump his entire stack and Bitcoin would still function. This is not the case for most other assets. Ethereum, for example, may have a promising future, but it still has a foundation. It has governance risks. It has humans making decisions. That does not mean Ethereum is flawed. It just means it operates under a different set of assumptions. And that matters when you are deciding what kind of exposure you want to have and how long you plan to hold it.
As the market moves higher, the asymmetry of returns gets weaker. Buying Bitcoin at $20,000 is not the same as buying it now at $80,000. The risk-reward ratio changes. It is not that Bitcoin will not go higher over time. It might. But the explosive upside becomes harder to justify. And this becomes even more evident with altcoins. Most of the top ten coins from the last cycle have not even come close to recovering their previous highs. Many never will. The market has spoken. It is telling us which assets matter and which do not.
And yet, we know the pattern. We know the cycle repeats. When Bitcoin was at lows in 2023, we had no doubts it would rise again. If it drops to 40,000 or 50,000 this time, it will likely rise again. It is all about understanding that you do not need to catch the bottom to be successful, you just need to wait for a better time. That's why the most profitable move is to wait and watch, and not in 4H candles, but in 1W.
Crypto is every day more exposed to macro. It moves with interest rates, global liquidity, and geopolitical events. So instead of trying to front-run every micro-narrative, if you made a good amount of profit, it is often better to wait for real confirmation and not gamble like when you needed to capitalize heavily. When the macro conditions improve, the sentiment will shift with it. The best setups are always clear in hindsight. But they also become visible to those who are patient enough to observe.
Take a break
If you have been grinding during this last cycle, studying, trading, building, and you have made money, then this might be the moment to pull back. Not just for a few days or weeks. I mean a real break. Months. Maybe years. Still manage your positions. Still monitor the market. But give yourself permission to take a step back from the constant obsession of operating in the market. The easy mode is behind us. It was back when everything was going up. That window is closed. What we have now is more complex. The market has matured. There is more competition and less obvious upside.
Right now, the sentiment on Crypto Twitter feels louder but less focused. Our portfolios look different. The conversations have changed. The energy is still there, but the opportunities are no longer effortless. That is not a reason to panic, it is a reason to be more selective. The in-between phase we are in is a perfect time to protect capital, refine theses, and reset expectations.
We struggle with the idea that everything is cyclical. We always want to believe that this time is different. But history keeps proving that cycles dominate. What feels like a new paradigm is usually just the next version of the same pattern. The real winners are not those who trade every bounce. They are the ones who know when to step in and when to step away.
So step away if you need to. Rest and disconnect from this fast and toxic ecosystem, and embrace a more relaxed and present life for a while. One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned in this space is that your inner calm is just as important (if not more) than your skillset. Protect what you’ve built. Wait for the moment when it feels obvious again. And remember, the only people who are truly late in crypto are the ones who lost everything and had to start over from scratch.
If that is not your case, then you are still early.
